Implications of Ukraine War with Russia

Ukraine war with Russia is not a rapid turn of events. There were many smaller events that ultimately resulted in the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Russia, on 24^th Feb 2022, announced that they are initiating a special military operation in Ukraine in order to disarm the Ukrainian state. In other words, Russia wants to destroy the military capability of Ukraine. For this purpose, they called this militaristic act the military operation, however, the rest of the world calls it an invasion or the Russian war in Ukraine.

Why did Russia invade Ukraine?

The immediate reason was the Russian Charter of demands that Russia has placed before the European Union, NATO, and the US. Russia has some security issues and interests, and she wanted compliance from the western world. The most important of all is the written guarantee that Ukraine and Georgia will never be given the membership of NATO. Furthermore, those states that become members of NATO after 1997, the other NATO Members will not deploy their military capabilities.

Historically, there was a US project by the name of NATO missile defense shield. When it becomes public and advanced with its deployment in NATO countries, there was strong resistance from Russia. As a result of the Russian protest, the then President Barak Obama abandoned the project.   

In the pretext of this context, the Russian has broadened their demands. They now object to the membership and the deployment of any sort of military installation in the NATO member (members from 1997 onwards) countries that share borders with Russia. Russia is demanding that NATO should withdraw from such countries. These were the two main demands from Russia.

On the other hand, The US and the western allies rejected these Russian demands in clear terms. Thus, Russia invaded Ukraine on this pretext. Here one can ponder on the fact that if it was the only reason to take such a huge risk in world politics?

After analyzing the historical facts, we can safely say that this was the immediate reason but not the primarily long-term reason. Behind this Russian invasion, there are historical as well as current reasons, on the basis of which, Russia has taken this bold step.

Russia Long term Interest if Ukraine

Ukraine is not an independent state

Russia as well as President Putin, personally, has never accepted the fact that Ukraine is a separate sovereign nation-state. In fact, when the Soviet Union was dismantled into 16 new nation-states, Ukraine was one of those states to gain independence. However, most of the Russian elements were most worried and concerned about Ukraine, they regretted the separation of Ukraine from the Soviet Union. This is evident from the fact that Putin, in one of his public statements, said that Ukraine has historically been a part of the Russian empire, and has never remained a sovereign independent state in history.

Russia’s Security concerns in Eastern Europe and in Ukraine

This is a historical fact that even after World War 2, Russians’ primary concern in this area was that Eastern Europe shall remain under its influence. The main logic behind this is that the US along with her Western allies shall not come nearer to the Russian immediate borders.

Thus, Russia considers western influence as a threat, and therefore, they want a buffer zone in Eastern Europe so that they can secure the Russian territories. This was the very same reason that caused the cold war between the two in the first place and is triggering the current conflict as well. Moreover, the western countries, through NATO, are trying to come closer to Russia, which is something that is unacceptable to Russia. 

Russian Resides in Ukrainian Territories

Russia claims that most of the people in Ukraine, especially in Eastern Ukraine, are ethnically Russian. They speak Russian and have cultural, historic, and political links with Russia. Russia believes that it is its responsibility to protect ethnic Russian groups in Ukraine. Thus, on this basis, Russia started the war against the present Ukrainian regime to protect the interest of Russian groups in Ukraine.

Russian Exports

Traditionally, the Western European region is the biggest market for Russian export. The Russian oil and gas are transferred to them through the route that passes from the Ukrainian territory. After 2014, the Crimean crisis, Ukraine was unfriendly and uncooperative towards Russia for transit oil and gas projects. Thus, Russia was looking for an alternative trade route and has to build Nord Stream 2 which moves through under the Baltic Sea to Germany and from Germany onwards to Europe.

A deterrence to all Eastern European states

Lastly, deterrence is also one of the major reasons that Russia invaded Ukraine. Russia wants to give a clear message to all the immediate neighboring eastern European states not to seek membership in NATO. Thus, Russia wants them to have converging security interests. 

Why west is Adamant and Resistant to Russian Demands?

Why the west including Western Europe and the US is not accepting the Russian demands? What’s in it for them? What is so important that they have taken the risk to provoke Russia into invading Ukraine?

Open Door Policy

To start with, it is a matter of liberal world order. They believe that it is the sovereign right of every nation to determine its own future. Therefore, the US and Western Europe are of the view that NATO is open to anybody in Europe who is willing to join. This western policy is often dubbed as the Open door policy. Thus, sovereign states have the right to join or not to join any organization. For that matter, the US and the West are of the opinion that the liberal world order would be at stake if they guaranteed that Ukraine and Georgia will not become members on behalf of NATO.

Threat from Emerging Powers

Not only this but also this step will embolden other emerging powers like China and India to demand similar things from the west. Thus, exceeding to Russia would embolden other rivals of the United States. This would pose a long-term threat to the western world and therefore they are unwilling to allow Russian influence in Ukraine and East Europe in general.

Bad Historical Experiences

Moreover, the west is also resilient to Russian demands because the western world, especially, Britain and France have a very bad historical experience of appeasement. In the 1930s, appeased Hitler and granted Hitler influence in Austria and in Czechoslovakia. Russians when they appease Germany by giving them the Napoleon. All of those developments have led to emboldening of Hitler and it never satisfied and pacified Hitler’s appetite for more and more territory the western world believes that their historical experience is such that they cannot allow Russia to appease on this matter of Ukraine.

What if Russia asks for more?

So they think that what is the guarantee that Russia will stop over only on Ukraine? What is the chance that the next country will not be Moldova, Estonia, Lithuania, Poland, or any other state?  Therefore their historical experience is such that they are unwilling to give any chance to Russian territorial expansion, Russian political blackmailing, or military blackmailing in east Europe.

Putin’s Authoritarian Regime

Finally, the western world believes that the regime of Russian president Putin is an authoritarian regime. To make sure that the west stands together against authoritarian regimes, and gives a broader message that the western world is together against any kind of authoritarian regime, whether in Europe or from outside Europe, is unacceptable. So Russia’s demands are being guaranteed because they are under the authoritarian regime of President Putin.

What is happening at the moment?

Ukraine sooner or later will be under Russian control. But the real question is at what cost?

The invasion is still taking place. Russians are still having a ground invasion as well as attacks on major urban centers. They are trying to besiege different cities but they have yet to capture the capital Kyiv. However, it is likely that Ukraine sooner or later will be under Russian control. But the real question is at what cost?

The Cost of War?

The cost will be for the Russians it is certainly there for the Ukrainians and it is definitely there for the Europeans and the entire world. The western world is imposing severe sanctions on Russia – economic sanctions. They’re now considering imposing energy sanctions on Russia, and have blocked Russian airspace. Similarly, a lot of companies including the big tech have been pulling themselves out of Russia like Netflix and Facebook. Russia is being economically squeezed by different European states and European companies.

This conflict in Europe is the largest conflict in Europe since World War 2. So there are numerous consequences of the war for the region and the world at large?

Humanitarian and Refugee Crises

To start with, approximately two million people have migrated from Ukraine to different states like Poland like you know Hungary and you know other parts of Europe and this trend is likely to continue or as per the UN reports, this number is likely to increase to around 4 million by the middle of this year. People are suffering and a lot of civilians have been killed in the crossfire. Obviously, migration itself is a problem long term in Europe for quite some time.

Spill over effect

Not only this but also this conflict has the potential to turn into a broader European war. Recently, Ukraine has requested uh NATO to establish a no-fly zone over Ukraine practically asking NATO to fight with the Russians over the airspace. However, if this happens, although NATO officially rejected it, if this kind of thing happens it is likely to trigger a regional war. More possibly it can turn into a nuclear war, as we know that Russia has put its nuclear forces on high alert.

The west versus the east

Another consequence of this war is that the world is now practically divided into two blocks. The western world is mobilizing the international community in its own support. On the other hand, there are lots of states who are unwilling to support the US, or even for that matter, Russians. These states include major states like China, India, Pakistan, UAE, and many other states. So the world is now divided between those who are condemning Russia and those who are not condemning Russia. So this is a kind of a global division as well that we see as a result of this war.

Similarly, it has long been said that China poses the greatest threat to the Western world order up till now. However, in Ukraine war with Russia has shattered this belief, at least in the short term.

Furthermore, there is a possible scenario that other authoritarian regimes and other powerful states like China will be asserting themselves more creating broader global anarchic conditions. Thus, a multipolar world order seems to be expedited since the beginning of this conflict.

Nuclear Arms Race

Another possible implication is the arms race and possibly the nuclear arms race in the region and the world. In this context, Germany has announced to almost double its defense budget. This shows that states in Europe, particularly and in general, in the

The western world has economic space to protect itself and heal itself from the economic fallout but the question is “do the developing states have the same security for themselves?” The answer is definitely no!

World is concerned about their security. Therefore they are likely to enhance their defense budgets and a triggering arms race is likely to be followed during this crisis and even afterward.

Economic Meltdown

Lastly, one of the most important major impacts would be the global economic crisis. The world is already suffering because of COVID19 and its aftermath. However, what we have seen is that as a result of this war and the global sanctions on Russia, the global energy prices are record high despite the fact that there are chances of Iran’s nuclear deal!

Global energy will remain a major international problem in the short to medium term. As a result of which we have seen a significant increase in global prices and global inflation. The western world has economic space to protect itself and heal itself from the economic fallout but the question is “do the developing states have the same security for themselves?” The answer is definitely no!

So, developing states like Pakistan, Afghanistan, and other third-world states are likely to suffer more because of the economic consequences of this war.

Conclusion

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has changed the world for good. It is unlikely that Europe and the world are going to be the same during and after this war. The unfortunate fact is that the world most likely not will be better when it comes out of this crisis. Therefore for a state like Pakistan, we must embrace this new harsh reality and prepare ourselves for it.