The rise of Taliban has again made Afghanistan important in the eyes of Pakistan. Ever since Pakistan came into being, Afghanistan has remained the prime focus of attention for Pakistan’s foreign policy.
One of the main reasons for this posture is India’s aggressive policy against Pakistan. Pakistan’s military leadership has been forced to realize that India wanted to harm Pakistan by dragging it into a two-front war.
This strategic thinking also reflects the fact that Pakistan had fully participated in the two Afghan wars, which it had nothing to do with. When compared to the small gains that Pakistan has made by participating in these wars, the damaging effects were far greater than the gains.
When the Taliban took over the government of Afghanistan on August 15, 2001, Afghanistan became even more important for Pakistan. The Taliban government has opened many windows of opportunities for Pakistan but, at the same time, it has also posed many challenges.
Emergence of Taliban: Good or Bad for Pakistan?
The advent of the Taliban government has raised a lot of hopes in the defense and political circles inside Pakistan. Most analysts thought that many of the differences that existed with Afghanistan could now be soon resolved. But after almost a year, this hope remained a hope and no practical work has been done in this regard so far.
The Rise of Taliban and opportunities for Pakistan
Elimination of Negative Indian Agenda with the Rise of Taliban
As long as there was a US-backed Afghan government in Afghanistan before, it always worked against Pakistan and cooperated well with India. The governments of Hamid Karzai and Ashraf Ghani speak volumes for this. Both governments had provided India with strategic space within Afghanistan to utilize the Afghan soil creating insecurity for Pakistan.
India took full advantage of this and strengthened anti-Pakistan groups, including the Tehreek-e-Taliban and various Baloch groups, by providing funding, training, and weapons. These heinous acts of India were also highlighted by the US Secretary of Defense in an interview in 2011 when he said that India was providing money to Afghanistan to carry out terrorism inside Pakistan.
However, since the arrival of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, India’s so-called dominance in Afghanistan has almost disappeared.
In the same way, India’s involvement in the process of working for the betterment of Afghanistan at the global level has diminished. For instance, India’s role in the extended Torika, the forum of Russian and Chinese initiatives for the betterment of Afghanistan, has almost ended. Now, it is too difficult for India to project itself as a peace-loving and regional benefactor on the international level.
Positive Image of Pakistan and its Soft Power
Pakistan is now being looked upon with a good eye in solving the problems of Afghanistan. This has been acknowledged by many international officials on different forums. On the occasion of the extended troika, US officials acknowledged that Pakistan’s involvement is essential for a better Afghanistan and that Pakistan should continue to play such a role in the future.
Pakistan can use this to enhance its soft power and use it to pursue its national interest.
Pakistan’s Policy Shift from Geo-strategic to Geo-Economics
Under Imran Khan’s rule, Pakistan shifted its focus from defense to the economy. With this agenda in mind, the National Security Division convened the Islamabad Security Dialogue and then published Pakistan’s first National Security Policy. Within that, Pakistan’s position shifted openly towards the geo-economy. This shift could never be made possible without the emergence of a Pakistan-friendly Taliban government in Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s military leadership has been forced to realize that India wanted to harm Pakistan by dragging it into a two-front war.
With the reemergence of the Taliban government, many factions within Pakistan, that were previously reluctant, also supported this shift. Now there is hope that Pakistan can transform from a security state to a welfare state in the near future, at least in the policy domain.
Afghanistan’s Entry to BRI with the Rise of Taliban
Shortly after taking over the government, the Afghan Taliban expressed a desire to join China’s Belt and Road initiative and CPEC. China also invited the Afghan Taliban to join the CPEC. Moreover, China is more interested to invest in the raw material wealth of Afghanistan, particularly, in the arena of mineral development inside Afghanistan.
Pakistan should take advantage of this and play a key role in brokering an agreement between the Taliban and China. One major benefit will be the creation of employment opportunities for ordinary citizens. This will significantly reduce terrorism, and the area, as a whole, will prosper.
Problems for Pakistan and Taliban’s Ignorance
As far as we know, history suggests that both Pakistan and Afghanistan have benefited from each other on numerous occasions. However, in the present era, Pakistan has done a lot more for Afghanistan and the Taliban at the national and international levels. On the other hand, the Afghan Taliban have a huge moral responsibility to support and cooperate with Pakistan. So far, not much has been done from the Afghan side to cater to Pakistan’s interest in this regard.
The Contention of the Durand Line and its Recognition by the Taliban
The first issue that stands in the way of the two countries is the Durand Line. This border came into existence in 1893. But the Afghan rulers do not acknowledge it. On the contrary, the rulers of Afghanistan are of the opinion that Afghanistan’s sovereignty is up to the Indus River. This is not something that Pakistan can tolerate. The Durand Line is an internationally recognized border, but the rulers of Afghanistan do not recognize it.
the rulers of Afghanistan are of the opinion that Afghanistan’s sovereignty is up to the Indus River. This is not something that Pakistan can tolerate.
Relations deteriorated further when Pakistan started laying fences on its western border. Some Taliban fighters along with their leaders started tearing down fences in some areas claiming that the people of Afghanistan do not like this at all and that it is separating families from each other.
Furthermore, it is important to understand that when the Taliban first came to power in Afghanistan, they also did not recognize the Durand Line. However, presently the circumstances are different. Pakistan has helped Afghanistan in its 20 years of war by supporting its 5-6 million refugees, among other things. Moreover, Pakistan has made a smooth US exit from Afghanistan possible, which ultimately paved the way for the Taliban’s rule. Therefore, now the Taliban government can be expected to resolve this issue once and for all.
On the contrary, the Pakistan Foreign Office should also work hard for the resolution of this border issue through full-fledged dialogue. This minor issue is very important so that it may not lead to further deterioration of relations between the two countries.
The Rise of Taliban and The Issue of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan
As long as the US-led government had been active in Afghanistan, it has given many opportunities to anti-Pakistan terror groups that worked against Pakistan by taking training and funding from India. That is why the most dangerous enemy of Pakistan –Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan—operates from Afghanistan. It had become very powerful during these couple of years.
According to a report by a well-reputed think tank (Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies), the terrorism incidence inside Pakistan has increased significantly and has been recorded at more than 42%, since the Taliban take over. Similarly, according to a UN report, there are still between 3,000 and 5,000 active Tehreek-e-Taliban fighters in Afghanistan who are fully capable of orchestrating terror-related acts inside Pakistan.
When the Taliban government came to power, Pakistan hoped that the Afghan Taliban would work to eliminate the TTP, and would stop them from pursuing any anti-Pakistan agenda.
On the contrary, instead of taking any action against TTP, the Taliban asked Pakistan to resolve all its differences through dialogue. Despite all this, Pakistan took the matter positively and started talks. However, the TTP demands were so outrageous that the talks ended abruptly.
According to a report by a well-reputed think tank (Pakistan Institute for Peace Studies), the terrorism incidence inside Pakistan has increased significantly and has been recorded at more than 42%, since the Taliban take over.
Similarly, according to a UN report, there are still between 3,000 and 5,000 active Tehreek-e-Taliban fighters in Afghanistan who are fully capable of orchestrating terror-related acts inside Pakistan.
So, if the Afghan Taliban do not take action against the TTP and its related factions, then relations between Pakistan and Afghanistan may deteriorate further, which will make peace in the region very difficult in the coming future.
Problems Arising from the Sudden Collapse of Afghan Institutions
The sudden collapse of Ashraf Ghani’s government and its institutions has taken Pakistan by surprise.
Due to the Taliban’s take over, Afghanistan has faced international sanctions and diplomatic and economic isolation. With no proper state institution functioning, Afghanistan has become a burden to the regional countries rather than a benefit, especially for Pakistan.
In this state of affairs, Pakistan has to work very carefully with Afghanistan, otherwise, it could create more problems for Pakistan.
The Issue of Afghan Refugee
Similarly, Afghan refugees are a big problem. Whenever the situation in Afghanistan deteriorates, a large number of Afghans migrate to Pakistan. Pakistan does not have the resources to meet the water, food, and other requirements of its own people. So how can she provide for so many Afghans?
Pakistan should do its best the removal the sanctions on Afghanistan. In this regard, arrangements shall be made for the return of all Afghan refugees to Afghanistan by Pakistan, Afghanistan, and the international community.
Conclusion
In a nutshell, the region in which Pakistan and Afghanistan resides has been blessed with numerous natural resources. However, due to foreign western intervention and war, both countries were unable to harness this economic potential to improve the conditions of their population. Now, the foreign occupants have left the region for good. Now it is up to Pakistan and Afghanistan to grow together for a prosperous future. For this, both countries need to resolve and eliminate their differences peacefully through dialogue. Facts suggest that Pakistan has done a lot in this regard, and Afghanistan should do the same. Only this way, there is a possibility of a prosperous region.
